Publications

2026

1. ICML

   Likelihood Matching for Diffusion Models

   Lei Qian, Wu Su, Yanqi Huang, and Song Xi Chen

   In International Conference on Machine Learning, 2026

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   We propose a Likelihood Matching approach for training diffusion models by first establishing an equivalence between the likelihood of the target data distribution and a likelihood along the sample path of the reverse diffusion. To efficiently compute the reverse sample likelihood, a quasi-likelihood is considered to approximate each reverse transition density by a Gaussian distribution with matched conditional mean and covariance, respectively. The score and Hessian functions for the diffusion generation are estimated by maximizing the quasi-likelihood, ensuring a consistent matching of both the first two transitional moments between every two time points. A stochastic sampler is introduced to facilitate computation that leverages both the estimated score and Hessian information. We establish consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, and provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for the proposed sampler, quantifying the rates of the approximation errors due to the score and Hessian estimation, dimensionality, and the number of diffusion steps. Empirical and simulation evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed Likelihood Matching and validate the theoretical results.

   @inproceedings{qian2026LM,
     title = {Likelihood Matching for Diffusion Models},
     author = {Qian, Lei and Su, Wu and Huang, Yanqi and Chen, Song Xi},
     booktitle = {International Conference on Machine Learning},
     year = {2026},
     archiveprefix = {arXiv},
     primaryclass = {stat.ML},
     url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.03636},
   }

2. JASA

   Partially Functional Dynamic Backdoor Diffusion-based Causal Model

   Xinwen Liu, Lei Qian, Song Xi Chen, and Niansheng Tang

   Major revision for Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2026

   Abs arXiv Bib PDF

   Causal inference in spatio-temporal settings is critically hindered by unmeasured confounders with complex spatio-temporal dynamics and the prevalence of multi-resolution data. While diffusion models present a promising avenue for estimating structural causal models, existing approaches are limited by assumptions of causal sufficiency or static confounding, failing to capture the region-specific, temporally dependent nature of real-world latent variables or to directly handle functional variables. We bridge this gap by introducing the Partially Functional Dynamic Backdoor Diffusion-based Causal Model (PFD-BDCM), a unified generative framework designed to simultaneously tackle causal inference with dynamic confounding and functional data. Our approach formalizes a novel structural causal model that captures spatio-temporal dependencies in latent confounders through conditional autoregressive processes, represents functional variables via basis expansion coefficients treated as standard graph nodes, and integrates valid backdoor adjustment into a diffusion-based generative process. We provide theoretical guarantees on the preservation of causal effects under basis expansion and derive error bounds for counterfactual estimates. Experiments on synthetic data and a real-world air pollution case study demonstrate that PFD-BDCM outperforms existing methods across observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries. This work provides a rigorous and practical tool for robust causal inference in complex spatio-temporal systems characterized by non-stationarity and multi-resolution data.

   @article{liu2026PFDBDCM,
     title = {Partially Functional Dynamic Backdoor Diffusion-based Causal Model},
     author = {Liu, Xinwen and Qian, Lei and Chen, Song Xi and Tang, Niansheng},
     journal = {Major revision for Journal of the American Statistical Association},
     year = {2026},
     archiveprefix = {arXiv},
     primaryclass = {stat.ML},
     url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.00472},
   }

2023

1. QTQM

   An EWMA chart for high dimensional process with multi-class out-of-control information via random forest learning

   Mingze Sun, Lei Qian, Amitava Mukherjee, and Dongdong Xiang

   Quality Technology & Quantitative Management, 2023

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   Modern manufacturing and quality monitoring involve multi-class out-of-control (OOC) information from the training sample. It is essential to use such information during online monitoring of data streams from complex processes. In this paper, a monitoring framework is designed by combining the random forest technique with the exponentially weighted moving average method for monitoring complex processes with multi-class OOC information. To be specific, a process surveillance technique in the form of a control chart is proposed based on the probability that the online data is classified as an in-control (IC) sample, and the control chart triggers an alarm when the probability is lower than the control limit. Our numerical findings based on the Monte–Carlo simulation show that the proposed control chart performs more effectively than its competitors under various distributions and data types, especially for high-dimensional cases when multi-class OOC information is known in advance. Moreover, the proposed method is illustrated with an application using the data related to the hard disk manufacturing processes.

   @article{sun2023EWMA,
     author = {Sun, Mingze and Qian, Lei and Mukherjee, Amitava and Xiang, Dongdong},
     title = {An EWMA chart for high dimensional process with multi-class out-of-control information via random forest learning},
     journal = {Quality Technology \& Quantitative Management},
     volume = {0},
     number = {0},
     pages = {1-27},
     year = {2023},
     publisher = {Taylor & Francis},
     doi = {10.1080/16843703.2023.2244213},
     url = { https://doi.org/10.1080/16843703.2023.2244213},
   }